Thursday, 23 Feb 2017

Some gems from @RollyTrader today
  1. Former leading names very rarely lead in the next cycle. Most of the time it'll take 3 years  or over to re-set. Stale money = left hand side = lower probability
  2. If you trades dog stocks you have to learn to take profit quickly.
  3. Look to buy stocks within 20% of 52 week highs. If your W/L rate struggles restrict your trading to those names only

Mistakes Made

I knew this but just made a blunder last week.

You can NOT mitigate the risk on the company's earning report. Better to SELL before the announcement. If it's good announcement, get back in

The blunder I made was on NEA.ax, CUP.ax, and CSV.ax

Stay away from the stock when their share price just lingering on the low, because it shows that even insiders are not buying 
Stay away from the company that are gapped down, as there are usually more bad news coming 

Verdict: my score last week was E-

Some Trading Ideas

Thinking of some trading ideas on the ASX
  1. MGX.AX -- Mount Gibson Iron
  2. PGC.AX -- Paragon Health
  3. MYX.AX -- Mayne Pharma 
What's currently hot:
  1. Cobalt
  2. Iron Ore
I know I should avoid:
  1. Down trended stocks

Personal Note on Trading

Are you Buying?

  • Buy stocks on their way up.
  • Buy stocks moving from a strong base formation. That way if wrong the worst case scenario is the stock moves back into the base.
  • Has a stock held above its recent low when the market has not? If so, that stock is much healthier than the market. how stocks hold up on down days shows a lot


Are you Adding?

  • Do Not Add on a Losing Position

Are you Chasing?



  • Chasing a stock brings emotions into play & emotions cloud judgement. Avoid this scenario, stay calm and everything appears so much clearer.
  • With emotions comes clouded judgement and confirmation bias.


If Things Go BAD:



  • Treat as number NOT the dollar value

Sydney Property



I saw this on the internet today:



Tony Abbott must be happy to own a property there.

Spotless (SPO.AX)

From the AFR this morning.


UBS is attracted to Spotless Group's growth potential and says "buy" with a $2.20 price target. "SPO announces a conditional agreement to acquire Utility Services Group (operating under the Skilltech, Fieldforce and Utility Asset Management brands), with annual service revenues of about $200 million and around 1500 employees nationally.
The business is a leading provider of retail meter reading and installation services in the electricity, gas and water sectors (around 50 per cent mkt share), as well as offering asset management services (eg maintaining poles and wires, clearing vegetation etc) in electricity distribution. Whilst no detail on earnings or acquisition price was included, we would expect this is a relatively lower margin business than the existing SPO businesses (but with relatively high predictability of earnings, as well as high renewal rates). We see this acquisition as further diversifying SPO's customer base, gaining them access to the key utilities sector, with work they already do (albeit in smaller scale when it comes to meter reading, and with different customers in defense and resources when it comes to asset management), and gives SPO the ability to cross sell other services to these utility customers."
Deutsche Bank retains a "hold" with a target price at $2.14 from $2.06 previously. Macquarie Wealth Management rates the stock an "outperform" with a target price at $2.35, saying "this looks a strategically sensible acquisition".

Lynas.. Malaysia..


I sold my Lynas holding for a substantial loss this morning...  

I guess it's all my own fault. Looking back, I managed this trade very badly... Damn!

Ok, let me go through my mistake:

  1. First rule of investing : Does the company make any money?
  2. Second rule : Does the product susceptible for price fluctuation that they can't control? i.e boom and bust scenario?
  3. Does the company have any legal proceeding or issues in their operation?
  4. Did I  apply stop loss properly?
  5. Was the company's sp affected by any hype in any way?
  6. Did I enter the trade, aware of those condition, but enter it anyway, because the price MIGHT come back up? (this trade was entered after a steep crash in SP) 



Just Another Day on the ASX..


frustration booking directFeeling the frustration ..lol


The drag on the US government started to bite me yesterday. I was watching and preparing to buy again. This time I had my eyes on MGX.AX (Mount Gibson Iron Ltd).  I sold MGX a short while ago for 0.82 which is turn out to be a good selling price. MGX price went down and down, it reached $0.70 two days ago.  I thought it would be great to grab it again, so I put a buy order at $0.68.

The US shutdown spooks people, and that's including myself. The ASX tanked and I got cold feet, I pulled out my order. MGX did hit $0.68, and I would have got them (it went up strongly afterward on the close).

That's fine, tomorrow I'll try again.. (But this did not happen..)

MGX was very strong from the beginning, up over 7% and the sellers are disappearing.

Many things happen this morning:

  1. US Government still in shut down
  2. Credit Suisse raised MGX from Underperform to Neutral
  3. The Iron ore bears, Credit Suisse, has upgraded its price forecasts
  4. Increase in MGX total Proved and Probable Ore Reserves, by 1 M tonne 
And I was left here, annoyed to myself for pulling my order yesterday


McMillan Shakespeare (MMS)

McMillan Shakespeare (MMS) is probably one of the most obvious evidence on how Australian government policy can affect the stock market.
SHARES in MMS have been smashed in the last few days by the Rudd government's surprise crackdown on the FBT treatment of leases on cars used predominantly for private use.

Analysts believe that they've seen the worst of the carnage, but obviously, the exact damage will remain unknown until after the election. It will be valid to consider, however, that the current event may have exposed the company’s business model inherent risks from which it is unlikely to ever fully recover regardless who is going to win the election.

I am asking myself, is it worth to risk it and buy?

Now, I consider myself a chicken when it comes to risks, and while every investment have it’s own risk, there is a significant level of risk in buying MMS. If the government win the next election and the changes in the regulation are implemented, the effect for MMS might be quite devastated. It is possible to imagine 30 or 40% lost of investment in a short space of time (August-September).

On the other hand, what if the opposition win the election? Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has said that he does not support a change to the FBT car rules.  If the changes were not implemented, McMillan Shakespeare would be left intact and growing. The price before the plunge was $18.

Other consideration:
As I mentioned earlier, regardless the election outcome, there will be a scar in MMS business model due to this recent scare. The market might reassess the value of MMS, so it probably will not shoot back up to their previous price in the short run.

I am not good at estimating stocks’ future price, especially with this sort of uncertainty towards it. Let’s see what the analysts and experts said:

  • Tim Boreham - Criterion:  Criterion believes that even if the amendments survive the election, this morning's share reaction has been overdone because the affected leasing arrangements are only part of McMillan's business. We'll back the bookies with a speculative buy call. 
  • James Lennon, of Ord Minnett, estimated shares would steady between $8 and $9. He said this was based on half the company's novated leases being for private use, which would equate to a 30 to 40 per cent hit to earnings. "There has always been this risk with this stock," he said, adding he expected revenues to recover, but not the share price.
  • Claude Walker - Motley Fool ; Even if the changes to salary packaging do not go through, the risk that the rules will change will not go away. That’s because under the current system people are (in effect) allowed to claim tax deductions for cars that are used mostly for personal tasks. If you forecast earnings to be 90 cents per share this year and were happy to pay a P/E of 14, then you would still only pay $12.60 for each share in this company. Personally, I wouldn’t even buy at that price. 
  • Bank of America Merrill Lynch is urging investors sell the stock with a price target of $6 a share.
  • Citi set a target price of $12.60 on the shares earlier before the halt lifted, with a 'sell' recommendation.
  • Goldman Sachs has put a 12-month price target of $9.45 on the shares, with a 'neutral' recommendation to clients, on the view that uncertainty will overhang the sector for up to four months before the proposed changes are abandoned.





In Every Cloud There is a Silver Lining

The 2013 Mining Business Outlook report by Newport Consulting has reported a steep free fall in mining sentiment among the industry leaders. 

Every year, in the last four years, Newport Consulting author a Mining Business Outlook Report, as an independent pulse-check of Australia’s mining industry. This year, a special election-year edition, features more than 60 lengthy interviews with the industry leaders.

The headlines messages from those interviews are:
  • Companies are significantly slashing CAPEX spend. The leaders, for the first time in four years, have declared that they are slashing CAPEX spend. Not postponing, nor increasing it.
  • Cost Control and Management are high on the agenda. Many mines are now operating at a loss due to cost blow-outs and the fall in commodity price.
  • The labor market is contracting. Labour and skill shortage crisis are gone, replaced with fewer vacancy and job redundancies.
  • Miners must act now to improve productivity. Operational efficiency must be improved. There is a slight trend among miners to focus on operational excellence and productivity.
  • Innovation must be embraced by the resource sector.  Advancements in the mining industry through innovation and new technologies. 
From the distance, it is all doom and gloom for the mining sector.  However every cloud has a silver lining.  The resource boom was so convincing that there was little or no need to innovate.  The challenge is now for the leaders to rethink their approach to operational excellence and to drive value back to the operation.



Sigma Warns on Drop in Earnings

Another company with earnings below last year's earning. No, it's not mining company or mining service company this time, Sigma is a pharmaceutical company.

What's the big deal..? Apparently there are 150 odd profit downgrade in the last 12 weeks.


Ausenco Ltd - Business Update

From Business Spectator today.

Shares in Ausenco Ltd have plummeted more than 25 per cent after a number of contract specific issues and a softer market saw the engineering and construction group flag lower first-half earnings and warn on its full-year performance.
At the 1015 AEST official market open, Ausenco shares were 27.44 per cent lower at $1.56, against a benchmark index drop of 0.21 per cent. Earlier Ausenco shares fell as low as $1.485.

One more engineering and construction group with plummeted share price. Softer market is to blame.
AAX.ASX is now trading at $1.48, a 31.16 % drop.

Runge Pincock Minarco - FY 13 Result Update

 The second half of the 2013 has been a very interesting time for mining support companies. A list of mining service companies reporting a drop in profitability, citing difficult condition and high cost of doing business.

The latest one with this update is RUL.ASX.

Runge Pincock Minarco has a string of new senior Managers starting from August 2012.  Since then, the company had changed the name to RPM (previously Runge Ltd), aggressively cutting employee (figures from 474 to 341 as of now), and also cut expenses and costs.

The results from first half 2013 was a shocker. The share price went down to 39 cents. Since then it went up as high as 67.5 cents.  This is the time when the price of many other mining service companies fell off the cliff, due to negativity in mining investment and commodity price.

With the new CEO, RPM seems to have won the confidence of a few fund managers (I don't know the figures for sure, but IOOF is one of them). The CEO has put in his own money, and so has the employees. You can see this on their update regarding Capital Raising.
All of the Company’s Directors participated to the full extent of their entitlement and a high percentage of the remaining applications were subscribed from the Company’s employee base.
Back to the Result Update...

Confidence is certainly not everything. Fixing up a company is not as easy as fixing up the share price of a non liquidly traded company.

Here is the result:

  • Software license sales for the year amounted to $6.8 million (FY12: $10.9 million), or down 37.5%.
  • Second half software sales of $2.7 million reflecting difficult trading conditions for desktop software and tight constraints on capital and operating expenditure within the mining sector.
  • Year on year net revenue from consulting services is down approximately 30%, or $20.0 million
  • The GeoGAS laboratory testing business was similarly affected by a sharp decline in coal exploration activity and associated testing experienced in FY13, with revenue down by approximately 27% or $2.9 million from FY 12
  • Recurring revenue from annual Software Maintenance grew by 15% to $11.3 million (FY12: $9.8 million)
  • The normal seasonally strong finish to the year for software as experienced last year when $2.7 million of software licenses were sold at year end was not replicated this year due to what we believe was strong fiscal directives across the mining industry.
  • Headcount at 30 June 2013 stood at 341, down from 474 at the commencement of the financial year
  • As a result of the restructuring activities the run rate of operating expenditure in the 4th quarter of the year reduced to $16.0 million, down by $6.0 million or 27% from operating expenditure in the comparative 4th quarter in 2012 of $22.0 million.
  • Reported EBIT loss is $7.3 million, down from $8.7 million profit in 2012.

There is no mention about capital raising in the result update. I am not sure about the reporting standard (accounting wise), but I think the capital raising should be mentioned, to explain the total cash in hand at the end of the period.
The Group had cash reserves of $6.9 million and no bank debt at the end of the financial year.

Not the beginning of the end, I hope..

Is RUL now a new Mincom?

CEO, CTO, Legal counsel & Company Secretary.. all ex. Mincom..
Probably new name should be RungePincockMincom.. oh wait, 10 millions voters on the AGM were against re-election of Ian Runge.. Don't they want him..? :)

What's going on?

The “Do Nothing” Manager

An article written by a dearest friend of mine, JA. The ownership, copyright, etc. of this article is his and his alone.


The “Do Nothing” Manager

A personal account of working directly for a do nothing manager over a period of five years

Introduction

I have worked for over fourteen years in the technical department; maintaining and developing products for the company. Over this time we have had several managers of the department, leaving myself with a lot of experience dealing with management. I decided to write this personal account of the last five years of management practice, primarily to help myself analyse the situation and help explain to others my perspective. The title “Do Nothing” manager is my summary of the effectiveness of the management over this time, and below is my explanation as why I have come to this conclusion.

Maintaining the status quo

If the manager is doing nothing, what is happening?

During my time in the department actually not that much has changed, there have remained several stalwarts within the company and the general effort and direction from management is to maintain and enhance the current products, incremental innovation has thus been the major focus.

i.e The department actually runs itself.
(The technical people in the company are very competent and have been doing the business for a long time and are set in their ways they need very little oversight. The technicians are used to getting their way and making the necessary technical decisions. Their attitude towards management tends towards enduring and ignoring their incompetence.)

Over the last five years I struggle to think of changes / improvements introduced by our manager, I can think of several things that were tried and failed but even these are few.
(see the appendix 1 for items I can recall)

Talk the facts

Overtime I have become to realise that the management style is very similar to a politician. I believe he has gained respect for stating very clearly the basic facts and re-iterating his view point similar to a politician. This is probably his strongest characteristic and at times can help clear up common miss-understandings, but like all politicians or at least the common perception of a politician fails to ensure plans are well communicated, implemented and refuses to listen to issues and adjust plans. 

Brutal

From my own experience I can only describe the strong management style as brutal; the tough decision making can be done rashly without any collaboration. The manager himself somewhat proudly refers to this as necessary ruthlessness to get tough decisions done. In my experience this is standard behaviour i.e strongly stating facts as he sees them (usually over simplifying the issues), with no room for discussion and strong statements something like “Do I make myself clear”.

Unfortunately very important actions are taken rashly, this behaviour has created an atmosphere of fear and people comply even if they disagree.
This same behaviour is also common for minor or small issues; however I have noticed that it is easy to dodge or ignore these. I have noticed others using these similar tactics:
1. No actions were documented, ignore it and it will probably be forgotten
2. If it is brought up again, either delay or explain some reason why it couldn’t proceed.
3. Argue the point strongly, from my observations the manager will always back down!

Negativity

Everything is no. From my own observation I believe strongly that 99% of change or suggestions will be treated negatively, a reason will be identified why the idea possibly won’t work. The first issue raised by someone will be enough to stall the issue. The do nothing style of management means that any kind of change is nearly impossible to occur. Only ideas from the manager himself will half-heartily be moved forward as it isn’t approached collaboratively but forced strongly by authority.
This is difficult to explain, but the importance of positive approach from the boss cannot be under estimated and the damage of negativity and resistance to change are major factors.

Never approve anything

I personally tried to get approval to start a project, emails went un-answered. We drafted a form that required management signature for a project to begin, but ended up proceeding without approval. I have been screamed at and told to stop all work that is unapproved! Something difficult when nothing is approved, i.e that is no process has
No Process – No Accountability
During the five years of management there has been very little change, no formal process has been established or followed, with no process there can be no accountability. While there was definitely a clear intention and several attempts to create process and procedures for whatever reason they have never been implemented adequately.

Gigantic Mistakes

Inter-department friction
The obvious friction between departments that was maintained across the five years has been very damaging, the other departments have no trust or idea what the technology department does, this has meant the department has become isolated and introspective.
Investment in infrastructure
A giant unnecessary investment in technology infrastructure.
Focus on non-revenue producing projects
There was no system to select or conduct projects based upon revenue potential
Placing the largest project on hold
Innovation on the largest product with the greatest revenue stream was put on hold for an extended period of time, without any plan or urgency to develop an alternative strategy.
Failed projects
It became accepted that projects would run over time, budget and scope, with little customer involvement, it has simply become not the manager responsibility to ensure projects succeed.

Maintaining an effective shield

Surprisingly people have followed the bad precedents set by this manager and copied his style of management, by doing so they have received a lot of support from the manager.  He has effectively mentored several people and authoritarian rule has become the accepted way to conduct business in the department.

The Communication Void

The last five years can be characterized by a lack of communication. We can only assume there was adequate communication happening up to the managing director and the board; we have no knowledge of any strategy or communications to or from the board/managing director. Over four years ago the manager showed me a power point presentation that he gave to the board, it has never been shown to the team and I’ve never seen it again. Each year a budget is submitted for the department but nobody has any input or any knowledge of its contents.

Excel in firing

The manager is very competent in getting rid of people, in a company which has an informal policy of never removing anyone; he is particularly harsh in assessing people as inappropriate or suggesting they should be made redundant.

Managing suppliers

During his time as manager he personally handled all purchases from suppliers for any technology procurement; he on his own omission was a very tough customer, ensuring we squeeze each supplier on price to the extreme. Proving the statement “The Customer is always right” isn’t true.

Wasted Opportunities

The last five years can only be looked upon as a series of wasted opportunities as poor practice and poor management result in huge in-efficiencies and waste, and no new opportunities were attempted.

Looking after No 1.

Training
He received lots of expensive training, and many trips to conferences. This has only lead me think of the saying… “You cannot train a donkey to win a race. You must select a race horse with promise and train it, if you hope to win”.
Overseas trips
He traveled overseas to international offices, we heard a lot about the shopping and travel but no other outcome.
Hardware
He had all the latest hardware, and gadgets. People in the department don’t.
Salary
He ensured he was on very high pay. People in the department aren’t.
Promotion
He was the senior person in the department and promoted himself to more senior position with new title.
Background
He has no background or experience that would make him a suitable manager for the technology department with no university education or other qualification.
New Ideas
He promoted his own ideas with no collaboration or co-operative dialogue to bring new ideas into reality; they simply failed with no support. After that he stopped trying to introduce changes and maintained that status quo.
Why?
I have been asked by many of my colleagues why the manager behaves in this fashion. Honestly the answer eludes me. I have no experience in psychiatry or any ability to psycho analyses the actions of someone, I can only surmise a few points from my perspective.

1) Lack of experience in management
2) Lack of confidence from the Managing director
3) Fear, uncertainty and doubt

The Giant Excuse

The Managing director told me so.
This surprisingly seems to have some reasoning behind, as I would suggest that the managing director hired the wrong person for the job. He most likely realised this after hiring the person, as it became apparent that the person wasn’t the right person for the job. And as he suggested changes that were clearly unsuitable I believe the managing director made it clear that he didn’t expect anything but to follow the status quo.

I Have to Own Stocks Because....

Nassim Taleb was on CNBC recently, talking about why he owns stocks and not treasuries.
"I own stocks. Why? Because I don't trust treasury bonds..." He also owns some Euros.
I don't personally care about the guy's opinion very much. I've read his book "the black swan", he's very smart of course, but to be honest I'd prefer some other investing or trading books much better.

Now, back to the topic of owning shares. Personally, I sort of 'have' to own shares. The stock market's carnage in past three years, surely left some scars and pain. BUT I have to own shares. Reasons to come...

Penny Dreadful Stocks

Year 2008, the year of the great downturn in the stock market around the world, has left my stock portfolio halved from the where it started.  Looking back of what happened, I guess one of my biggest mistakes before the crisis was to invest on few penny stocks. Penny stocks are stocks that are traded in a low price, usually speculative stocks from very small companies. Penny stocks looks appealing because of the low price and the potential for a rapid growth.

In 2007-2008, you can see many mining stocks in this category on the ASX (Australian Stock Exchange).  Mining boom helped the stocks grow like mushrooms in the rainy season. They usually had a great run for a while, make you greedy and want more profit, when it was suddenly experiencing a freefall. Worse thing was, even then, I still hoped that the price would go up again. I was waiting for an announcement that might lift the stock price. You might have guessed that when the long awaited announcement came, the price wasn't even move.I paid dearly for the mistakes, but I guess it's all come down to learn by experiences.
 
As a new investor who do not subscribed to any paid broker, I relied my research on the chart and story of the fundamentals. What I didn't realise, was that in some speculative cheap stocks, there are so many manipulative actions taking place. Of course not all cheap stocks are bound to be manipulated, but it does not hurt to check everything before we buy. Bad decision could cause a good damage in our investment.
 
There are risks with any investment. But certain risks are greater with penny stocks. One of them is the risk of manipulation. Because of their nature, penny stock is easy to manipulate. After the brokerage firms acquire a large number of shares at a low price, they can manipulate the stock by creating an artificial demand to drive up the price. When manipulation occurs, the stock's price may not reflect the true value of the company, but rather the artificial demand created by aggressive marketing. The price may then collapse after the broker and other persons involved in the manipulation sell their shares.
 
Another risk is caused by lack of information about the investment. Unlike most large, well established companies, many companies that issue penny stock do not provide a sound data/ reports to the public. This lack of information about the company's operating history and financial health increases the risk to the investor.
 
The market price of such stock can be based more on the aggressive marketing of the selling broker than on the real value of the company. This sort of marketing can be found easily on the Internet listings or report on TV -- The fact that a stock is mentioned or even recommended on television or on an Internet Website is no guarantee that the investment opportunity is legitimate. Moreover, some television programs or reports are actually advertisements paid for by brokerage firms.

Books

A quick visit to a local library last week resulted in a winning trade for me. Just by chance I picked this book and     reading it really is a time well spent. Very well spent.

To be honest, I have heard about this book from some of my other reading before. A quite famous book for trader, although in my ignorance I was not interested in seriously finding it to read. The book is called 'Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom' by Van K Tharp.

I recently bought, 'Trading in the Zone' and enjoy it very much, but I have to stop reading it temporarily and switch to Van Tharp's book due to the nature of library book. I have to return it in 2 weeks time!!

Alan Joyce

I do not own Qantas shares, and barely know its CEO until this weekend.  The industrial action that led to the grounding of Qantas' entire fleet sort of forced people to look at him. Who's Alan Joyce, and do you think he is worth his pay?

I kind of almost like Alan Joyce (..fyi I detest most directors..). I think he's worth every cent they pay him.

Locating the Exit

Everything is rosy on the headlines.. The stock market poised for the biggest monthly gain since 1988, The RBA 'might' cut the interest rate, The authority said that housing prices are not falling in Australia, Euro zone and Greek problems are solved, US GDP increase by a lot and Pharmaxis won positive opinion for their Bronchitol in Europe (this probably only applied to its shareholders).

Then again, things just does not seems 100% right. Close at home unemployment is creeping up, some says that housing price fall are accelerating, and Greek..? Do you think their problem is solved by Euro bailout? US housing and debt problem..?

And China.. how many doubts about their health we have heard lately?  Hard landing is coming in China, warned Dr Doom, Nouriel Roubini.

Technically, it's probably we have enough market rally recently.  Heading for the exit?