Things Might Just Get Better

Recent days in the ASX was not so bad. Things started to pick up pace, and the ASX started to disconnect itself to the US market. Slowly, but I hope it will get there.

As I wrote few days earlier, I was looking to get into more Energy shares. Energy stocks I own, BPT and DYL, have some small upward movement. It still quite disapointing for DYL, but then, it's not oil company afterall.

I rearrange my shareholding by selling AFG and half of my REX. I do not know why I have kept them for so long (too long), knowing that things are unlikely change for the better in the current situation. With the money, I bought ARQ (Arc Energy).

Today, I will try to put down some very rough research on few energy company: (Might worth a look, but as always, DYOR)

1. AED (AED OIL LIMITED)
   
   Highest Price in 12 months 11.4
   Lowest Price in 12 months 1.01
   Current Price 2.27 Trend : Sideways trending up, recently the average line crossed the price line
   Activities: Oil exploration and development


2. AWE (Australian Worldwide Exp) P/E ratio 7.95
   Highest Price in 12 months 4.17
   Lowest Price in 12 months 2.77
   Current Price 4.05 Trend : Trending Up nicely
   Activities : oil and gas exploration and production co
   On 1/05/2008 AMP Becoming a substantial holder
   On 2/05/2008 ABN Amro ceased to be a substantial holder


3. ARQ (Arc Energy) P/E ratio 11.75 Highest Price in 12 months 1.84 Lowest Price in 12 months 0.98 Current Price 1.42
   
   Trend: Trending up with a bit bumpy end, average line already crossed price line
   Broker's Recommendation: Petterson stock broker's report 6 May 2008 - Buy
   Hartley dated 7 April 2008 -Buy
   
4. HZN (Horizon Oil)
   
   Highest Price in 12 months 0.43
   Lowest Price in 12 months 0.21
   Current Price 0.33
   Trend : trending up; average under the price line
   Activities: Petroleum exploration, development and production.

Are We Through the Worst of the Credit Crunch?

Recently, reported in the Australian, Reserve Bank said that the worst in the financial crisis is over. This is a conclusion of the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, issued yesterday.

Some markets such as including mortgage-backed securities remain closed, but the Reserve Bank believes the crisis has left Australian banks and businesses largely unscathed.

Australian businesses are in a strong position, with high levels of profits and
continued access to debt and equity funding, despite the turmoil in financial
markets.

While it's difficult to project the future of the stock market, this report gives me a bit of relieve.
Surely it's hard for the investor to endure another another downturn, after nearly a year of turmoil.

The RBA is not the only one who's commenting about the crisis by saying that the worst is over.
Here a list of other opinions, not from a beginer like me, but from some best people in the investment and share trading business:

Warren Buffett:

"The worst of the crisis in Wall Street
is over," Buffett said on Bloomberg Television (May 3rd). "In terms of people
with individual mortgages, there's a lot of pain left to come.'' Buffett was
interviewed before the Omaha, Nebraska-based company's annual meeting.

Bank of England:

The worst of the credit crisis may now be
over and markets could soon be on the road to recovery, the Bank of England
believes (1st May, 2008).

In a report likely to reassure families struggling with soaring mortgage bills and falling house prices, the Bank's deputy governor, Sir John Gieve, said London's troubled money markets could soon recover from what is widely regarded as the worst crisis since the Great Depression.

According to the Bank of England, so pessimistic has the financial community become that it has overcompensated for the trouble ahead. Sure, the economy is in for a rough ride over the next couple of years but – compared with the current negative outlook – the prospects are positively rosy. That, at least, was the message from the Bank in its Financial Stability Report

However there are some other opinions:

• Alan Greenspan, former Fed Chairman who now consults for clients including Deutsche Bank AG, said it was too soon to declare the end to the credit crisis stemming from the collapse in the subprime mortgage market (May 5th, 2008).
• Also the comment from the JP Morgan CEO – “We can only speculate how deep and how long the recession in the United States will really be and how that in turn will impact banks…But we are not done with the crisis for a long time”. (May 3, 2008) JPMorgan Chase & Co does not expect the U.S. financial crisis to end soon and will remain very cautious.

Now the conclusion?

Finger cross!

Energy Stocks

I should probably take a picture of today's ASX action and keep it safe under the bottom of the drawer. The fact is, not everyday the All Ordinary defy Wall Street. At this moment All Ords up more than 40 points, when the Wall Street down more than 200 points. Hopefully, it's a good sign.


There are actually at least two sectors that going quite well despite of the financial crisis. They are Commodities and Energy. A quick look of my energy watch list today showed that all but two stocks are in the green. I'm currently working on the energy stock and iron stock picking. Hopefully could get few good ones to swap those underperformed in my portfolio.

OX-strata

A couple days ago, I had a hint of Oxiana's share price appreciation. But honestly, I did not expect it to be happenning now. Oxiana's share price is running for the last today. At the time I write this blog, it was up as high as $3.58, as high as 6% increase from yesterday.

Apparently, there are few reasons behind the increase, one of them is a speculation that Xstrata might want Oxiana. The Australian reported this today:

Xstrata may be eyeing Oxiana

ALL the market chatter yesterday was around Oxiana given some 40 million shares changed hands in the biggest daily turnover since the March 3 marriage to Zinifex was announced.
At the same time, there were 2500 July $3.75 option contracts that rolled over, which could explain some of the trade without having to even mention the rumour of the day, an Xstrata bid for Oxiana.
The theory is that Ken Talbot's pals at Hong Kong-based Citic will bid for MacCarthur Coal, not Xstrata, leaving the latter to break up the Zinifex marriage.
In the absence of any evidence last night, we will stick to the technical reasons for the heavier than normal volume.
But watch this space, because the same dealing desk that bought you the BG bid for Origin a day ahead of time is spruiking this one.