Industrea Ltd (2)

I came very close to exercise my stop loss on IDL yesterday. The share price went down close to 15%, on top of the dropped on the day before (when I bought on the dip). I do not wish to catch a falling knife (again!). Industrea today, however, announced that they secure a new contract worth US$9.5 M, including first South Africa sale.

So, despite the ASX big drop of 119 points, IDL was actually on the green by as much as 13%. Looks like I am going to hold Industrea shares  that I bought yesterday for a little longer.

Out of my three short termers, by the time I write this post, all of them are not too bad.  Girallia is so far unchanged, and Deep Yellow is up by 3%

Industrea Ltd

Managed to get some Industrea's shares today at $0.14 per share. The share price dropped as much as 30% from $0.195 today on the announcement that IDL lowers its NPAT guidance.  I intended to treat this purchase as a short time trade. Stop loss at 25% lower than purchase price.


From the news today:

Industrea lowers NPAT guidance
Marcus Berghouse
   
16/01/2009 12:00:00 AM.  

Industrea Limited (IDL) said the termination of its contract with Xstrata, combined with unseasonably high rainfall, had lowered expectations for FY09 revenue and NPAT. The company said NPAT would be between $42 million and $47 million, down from the $55 million to $60 million forecast last October.
The company said revenue would drop by 12% to between $290 million and $310 million.

On Wednesday, Industrea requested a trading halt indicating it had received notice from Xstrata plc's Mt Isa Mines that it was placing its Handlebar mine on care and maintenance and as such would be terminating its contract with Industrea for the provisioning of mining services. The company said the termination would be effective from 10 February 2009.

Investors reacted poorly to the news with Industrea's shares coming out of trading halt down around 26% down.

Industrea said its other mining services contracts in the wider Mt Isa region, including those with Xstrata at the Blackstar and Ernest Henry mines, remained operative. The company noted that at Blackstar there were plans to increase production by 38%.
The mining services company said it was in negotiations with various partners to replace the lost contract.

CEO Robin Levison said that aside from the disappointment at losing the Handlebar contract, the other business units of the company continued to  perform in line with forecasts.

"While the termination of the Handlebar Hill contract was disappointing, Industrea remains in a strong financial position," he said.

"Industrea also continues to explore new avenues for growth across its diverse client base and geographical markets with particular emphasis on the Chinese market in order to meet the Chinese Government's long term goal of increasing coal production to satisfy increased energy requirements over the next decade," Mr Levison said.

http://www.livenews.com.au/Articles/2009/01/16/Industrea_lowers_NPAT_guidance


Trading Plan - Work in Progress

I started to re write my trading plan yesterday. It still a work in progress now, and to be modified continually. Readers may use it as a trading plan sample and post their comments on the plan.

MY TRADING PLAN

  1. I understand that I cannot predict and control the markets. I will control myself by adhering strictly to my trading plan. 
  2. The only factor to be taken into account during trading should be the facts and not any preconceived ideas no matter how well-founded, nor other people's opinions.
  3. I will only trade on days when I am rested, relaxed and not distracted. I will stick to my trading plan, as it will help to prevent me from making trades that are poorly conceived and executed. I will not trade on days when I am feeling sick, tired or when I am distracted by other events in my life. 
  4. My daily trading goal is to trade according to my plan. 
  5. The instruments that I will trade are Australian Stocks listed on the ASX. 
  6. I will start my trading at 09.00 and finish at 11.30 every trading day. 
  7. I will ensure that of the 15 hours per week devoted to trading. 
  8. Each day, I will ensure that yesterday’s trades are analysed and that my trading journal is updated.
  9. I am a a risk averse trader and always seeking to minimise risk wherever possible. I will achieve this via diversification and risk management regime. 
  10. My maximum exposure in the market will not exceed a combined total of 10% of my capital at any one time. 
  11. My maximum exposure in any one sector will not exceed a combined total of 5% of my capital at any one time. 
  12. For every trade I enter, I will decide in advance where to place my stop loss.  Full exit to be taken when stop loss is reached without exception
  13. When my trading equity exceeds the amount I need to trade my strategies, I will withdraw the surplus and transfer it back to my bank account. 
  14. I will utilise a trailing stop which I will position10% below the lower high in an uptrend or 10% points above a higher low in a downtrend. 
  15. I will close my whole position immediately upon the price crossing the moving average. 
  16. I will close half my position upon a 50% increase/decrease in volume compared with the previous price bar. 
  17. In addition to recording all my trades, I check to confirm that all trades are executed in accordance with my plan. 
  18. I will update my trading journal regularly with my thoughts about each trade and my conclusions about the day as a whole. 
  19. If I break one of the rules detailed in my trading plan I will stop trading for a full day and focus on the reasons why there was a breach of discipline. 
  20. After a winning trade I will guard against over confidence and ensure that my attitude remains consistent, and remind myself that executing the trade in accordance with my plan is more important than the outcome of the trade. 
  21. After a losing trade I will examine the trade and learn what I can from it, check to ensure that I executed all aspects of the trade in accordance with my plan, and professionally unemotional with the loss.

Re-writting My Trading Plan

This week I will focus on re-writting my trading plan.  There are many things that I missed on my previous trading plan, and the fact that I haven't been very discipline on it, does not help either. This lack of discipline, has caused me a lot of unnecessary loss in profit. 

For those who are interested in writing their trading plans, or rewrite them, I found a good article and trading plan sample at:  

http://www.trade2win.com/media/knowledge/tim-wilcox/T2W_Trading_Plan_Template_2005.pdf 

Portfolio Update

I saw a few big gains today on my battered holding.  PNA gained as much as 100% from the price befor the (trading) halt, CBH gained as much as 66% and SDL of 14%.  Few stocks made small gains and few others are falling. Apart from the gains, the whole thing still looks so misserable.

Post Note: 

Bought Giralia (GIR) on Thursday, 8 January 2009, at $0.365 per share. Technically, I think it looks ok. The share price line was crossing the 20 days moving average. At this moment GIR is trading bellow its cash back up. Good and sound management, and hopefully there will be a recovery on the iron ore price.  

Mark to Market Accounting

Mark to market (MTM) accounting has recently received a lot of attention. Current global financial crisis has put this set of technical accounting rule into the spotlight. Some argue that mark to market accounting rule has put banks and financial institutions on their feet and should be suspended immediately. Are their arguments valid?

Mark to Market accounting (MTM) or fair value accounting means that companies must value their assets on their balance sheets based on the latest market price.

MTM is great for financial institutions when markets are booming, but when the economy is in the midst of a severe downturn, the use of MTM will reinforce the downward cycle. It adds momentum to a destructive downside.

Banks and other financial institutions argued that MTM rules have contributed to current financial problems because they are required to value distressed assets at fire-sale prices. Current credit crisis left Banks and other financial institution loaded up with bad debt and mortgage related security that was valued to next to nothing in the market. As the assets value plummeted, trouble and bankruptcy arises. As a result, banks and financial institutions demanded a suspension of the MTM.

On the newer development of this issue, Accounting bodies in the US and Europe are changing a few MTM rules.

The International Accounting Standards Board (IASB) has confirmed a change to its rules allowing some assets to be reclassified and avoid be subject to a fair value calculation.

The changes allow some assets to be moved from 'held for sale' or trade, which means using a fair value calculation, to 'held for investment' which does not. Last year, Deutsche Bank took advantage of new accounting rules, and shifted the income statement into a profit instead of a loss.

In the US, after so much discussion and deliberation, recent report from the SEC suggested that mark to market has its merits in determining assets and said it was not to blame for the financial troubles or credit crunch that has hit banks and lenders.

Is MTM to blame for the credit crisis?

Among the supporters of MTM are accountants and investors. They firmly believe that the crisis is not happening because of the accounting issues.

Furthermore, they argue that MTM ensures a decent amount of transparency for investors, and it requires a close look at the risks in order to assess value. If institutions were accurately marking the books, they would have seen the problems they were experiencing months in advance and could have made the necessary adjustments. All MTM does is require companies to reveal more information about the reliability of their reported fair value.

Companies have been practicing MTM for decades, and nobody complained when banks and others were recording large profit. The difference under SFAS 157 is that public can see the extent to which the fair-value results of a company are based on estimates.

It is an irony that many of the companies that complained about the MTM have only adopted MTM recently, partly because of a provision that let them count the decline of their publicly traded debt as ‘profit’.

MTM is not perfect, of course. There is a flaw on the assumption that securities could always be sold and converted to cash, and the claim that the market value is arbitrary.

Despite the flaws, however, in my opinion, MTM is not to blame for the credit crisis. The flaws were exaggerated.

MTM is not the problem, it is the banks that made poor decision and lost credibility with investor. It is easier to blame accounting rule for the problems than to admit the mistakes that the banks made. Suspending the MTM and move back to the historical cost accounting would not solve the crisis.  If we are using historical cost accounting today, there are still few assets that aren’t marked to market such as goodwill and inventory (lower of cost or market method). All the housing, mortgage and mortgage related assets would also have to be written down accordingly, as the value has been plummeted too much. Not to mention the goodwill that has been tarnished.

As an investor myself, I believe that most investors are smart enough to understand that values do change overtime.  To be kept in the dark with the company’s financial condition, it’s a big no.