I have just sold half of my IBA holding yesterday. It was not at the price I would like to have, but definitely the best price possible this week. IBA is 'consolidating' at around $1.32-1.33.
I am also considering to sell some part of my IDL holding. It's been hovering around $0.40 for some time, getting ready to take off, but failed to do so.
And Iran war? My husband advised me to sell everything I've got and just wait. Too much geopolitical uncertainties.
War, Oil Prices and Stock Market
THIS morning, news reported that world oil prices overnight hit new highs for 2007 as the market fretted over rising tensions between the West and major crude producer Iran. Iran, OPEC's second largest producer and the world's fourth-biggest producer of oil, certainly plays a considerable part on the world oil supply.
How far will it go? Will it head to oil crisis again?
Looking back at the history, there were several events that trigger the oil crisis:
How far will it go? Will it head to oil crisis again?
Looking back at the history, there were several events that trigger the oil crisis:
- First Oil Crisis, 1973-4
Arab countries’ retaliation for US support of Israel in Yom-Kippur war 1973.
Triggered sharp recession around world.
1973-4 is second sharpest stock market crash in US history. S&P Composite lost 53% of its real value between Dec. 1972 and Dec. 1974. (Only worse two-year experience was June 1930 to June 1932.) - Second Oil Crisis, 1979-80 1979: Iranian revolution, expulsion of the Shah of Iran, Ayatollah, capture of US Embassy hostages in Teheran Nov. 1979. Iran-Iraq war erupts 1980, disrupts oil supplies. US CPI inflation reaches 18%/year in March, 1980. The “great recession”of 1981-82 is the worst recession since Depression of the 1930s.
- Collapse of OPEC Cartel, 1986
After suffering bombing by Iraq, Iran demands that Iraq be given the same oil export quota as everyone else.
Other arguments about the disproportionate share of some OPEC states. - Persian Gulf War, 1990-1991
August 2, 1990, Surprise invasion of Kuwait by Iraq
UN Security Council deadline for Iraq to withdraw by January 15 1991.
January 16, 1991 Air bombardment of Iraq and its Kuwaiti positions begins.
February 24, 1991 Allied ground invasion begins. War is over February 26, 1991.
Brief interruption of oil supplies mark recession: NBER dates July 1990-March 1991. - Oil Price Collapse 1997
Nov. 1997 OPEC Meeting, the “disaster in Jakarta” involved bitter disputes among OPEC nations about market share. Fuming about widespread cheating in limiting exports to quotas. Asian financial crisis dropped demand for oil - Oil Price Spike 1999
OPEC resolve to stop cheating left supplies shorter than they expected
Erroneous data led them to underestimate how fast inventories were dropping.
Backwardation in oil futures market (futures price below spot price) began in January 1999. OPEC Increased quotas - Second Gulf War Oil Spike
In anticipation of war, oil rises to nearly $36 per barrel February, 2003
US invaded Iraq, March 19, 2003. Symbolic end of war: after capture of Baghdad, crowd topples Hussein stature April 8, 2003.
Oil falls to $28 per barrel by April, 2003 - Next: US- Iran War???
War! is good for nothing, especially if it caused by some nations arogancy!
CBH Resources Limited (CBH.ASX)
I bought a few of CBH Resources Limited (CBH) shares today. This mean I spent all my budget, left me with a mere $15.78 in my account. CBH share price experienced a freefall recently, but hopefully it starts to go back up again, now the have raised some fresh capital. I used to own these shares a while back, but bailed out when the share price went out of control.
Acording to Aspect valuation, this share is undervalued.
CBH Resources Limited (CBH) is a minerals exploration, development and production company, primarily interested in base metals projects in western New South Wales. The company is focused on operation of the Endeavor mine and the development of its Panorama and Broken Hill projects.
Acording to Aspect valuation, this share is undervalued.
CBH Resources Limited (CBH) is a minerals exploration, development and production company, primarily interested in base metals projects in western New South Wales. The company is focused on operation of the Endeavor mine and the development of its Panorama and Broken Hill projects.
Oxiana's Martabe
I found this article today at the Australian. Oxiana is still linger at $2.80 this week. It went up 3 cents since I bought this share few days ago.
Here's the article:
Oxiana experts size-up Martabe
Andrew Trounson
March 23, 2007
SENIOR Oxiana mining engineers and geologists will soon be flying to Indonesia as the company takes control of $415 million target Agincourt Resources and its key asset, the Martabe gold project in North Sumatra.
But while Agincourt was set to complete a bankable feasibility study on the 270,000 ounce a year Martabe development by the end of the month, Oxiana is going to delay that as it works to get up to speed on the project. Agincourt had previously estimated the cost of Martabe at $US165 million ($206 million) with first production in 2009.
Another priority will be to access the value of Agincourt's less strategic 110,000 ounce a year Wiluna mine in Western Australia. While Wiluna may offer exploration upside for Oxiana, there is speculation it could decide to take advantage of a buoyant gold market to sell the operation.
However, Wiluna does have additional value to Oxiana as an infrastructure provider to Agincourt's 57 per cent owned Nova uranium deposit nearby.
Yesterday Oxiana, under managing director Owen Hegarty, declared its scrip bid unconditional after securing over 50 per cent acceptances. Oxiana last month cut its minimum acceptance level from 90 per cent, and sought to hurry along acceptances by reminding Agincourt shareholders that they stand to share in Oxiana's final year divided if they accept before the April 17 record date.
The 5c a share Oxiana dividend is worth 3.25c a share in Agincourt shares, or a total of $7 million. Oxiana yesterday said it had 55.8 per cent acceptances, including US gold giant Newmont's 19.9 per cent stake and the 10 per cent held by the board that has backed the takeover. And late yesterday hedge fund Monterrey Investment Management tipped its 5.8 per cent stake into the bid.
The acquisition of Agincourt adds some 6.7 million ounces of gold to Oxiana's resource base, almost doubling its gold resources to 13.8 million. At Martabe, Oxiana is hoping to replicate the success of its Sepon gold and copper development in Laos.
The Martabe deposits are in the forested hills above the town of Batang Toru, which is on a so-called highway and some 30km from the Sibolga deepwater port. However, the decentralised, sometimes chaotic nature of Indonesian politics is completely different from communist-controlled Laos.
From: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21431037-643,00.html
Here's the article:
Oxiana experts size-up Martabe
Andrew Trounson
March 23, 2007
SENIOR Oxiana mining engineers and geologists will soon be flying to Indonesia as the company takes control of $415 million target Agincourt Resources and its key asset, the Martabe gold project in North Sumatra.
But while Agincourt was set to complete a bankable feasibility study on the 270,000 ounce a year Martabe development by the end of the month, Oxiana is going to delay that as it works to get up to speed on the project. Agincourt had previously estimated the cost of Martabe at $US165 million ($206 million) with first production in 2009.
Another priority will be to access the value of Agincourt's less strategic 110,000 ounce a year Wiluna mine in Western Australia. While Wiluna may offer exploration upside for Oxiana, there is speculation it could decide to take advantage of a buoyant gold market to sell the operation.
However, Wiluna does have additional value to Oxiana as an infrastructure provider to Agincourt's 57 per cent owned Nova uranium deposit nearby.
Yesterday Oxiana, under managing director Owen Hegarty, declared its scrip bid unconditional after securing over 50 per cent acceptances. Oxiana last month cut its minimum acceptance level from 90 per cent, and sought to hurry along acceptances by reminding Agincourt shareholders that they stand to share in Oxiana's final year divided if they accept before the April 17 record date.
The 5c a share Oxiana dividend is worth 3.25c a share in Agincourt shares, or a total of $7 million. Oxiana yesterday said it had 55.8 per cent acceptances, including US gold giant Newmont's 19.9 per cent stake and the 10 per cent held by the board that has backed the takeover. And late yesterday hedge fund Monterrey Investment Management tipped its 5.8 per cent stake into the bid.
The acquisition of Agincourt adds some 6.7 million ounces of gold to Oxiana's resource base, almost doubling its gold resources to 13.8 million. At Martabe, Oxiana is hoping to replicate the success of its Sepon gold and copper development in Laos.
The Martabe deposits are in the forested hills above the town of Batang Toru, which is on a so-called highway and some 30km from the Sibolga deepwater port. However, the decentralised, sometimes chaotic nature of Indonesian politics is completely different from communist-controlled Laos.
From: http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21431037-643,00.html
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