What Drives Share Prices Up (and Down)? - Part 1

I guess the best answer is that nobody really knows for sure...

Since I started investing (which is not long ago...), I've been reading articles about stock price movement, technical and fundamental analysis, and such....
However, everytime I put those readings into practices, only half of them actually works. The same thing apply to those subcribtion newsletter and subscribtion share brokers/tippers.

I did once or twice followed what an online tipper suggest. They offered me a free subscription for their service.. I guess I wasn't lucky enough, because the shares turned out to be a big dud.. To make it worse, the tipper kept on sugesting it as a BUY, as it was getting cheaper and cheaper.. Anyway, looking at that share now, I am relieved that I bailed out, although a little bit too late for my liking.

Now, again, what drives shares price up and down?

Basically, supply and demand rules are at work here. If more people want to buy a stock (demand) than people who want to sell it (supply), then the price moves up. Conversely, if more people wanted to sell a stock than buy it, there would be greater supply than demand, and the price would fall.

The demand and supply, however, based on which shares the investor like or dislike.
What makes investor like a certain shares and dislike another shares. This comes down to figuring out what news is positive for a company and what news is negative.

I have a lot to learn and am still struggling to interpret a news...

This morning, there's an announcement from PNA : Pan Australian secures $286m for Laos mine.. With that big confidence from the Banks to PNA, I thought the share price will be up today, but apparently market dislike it.. There was a bloodbath in my holdings... Thing that I should be able to avoid if I could interpret the announcement better

Mix and Missed

Giralia's adding to a string of my portfolio's lost selling. I sold out yesterday morning for $0.73 per share. It's been a while since I bought Giralia at $.83, and the share price did not go anywhere but lower. I guess I'm just a little bit impatient.

The ASX index went down yesterday, following the downwards in Wall Street. Things was not actually too bad for my shares, as they all went up except Oxiana and Tassal Group. There was news on the weekend about the antibiotic scare in Tasmanian Salmon...
Gee.. it's scare me enough that I hope it won't do too much damage to the share price..

I missed the run in ADY (Admiralty Resource). I put a buy order at $0.22 per share, and couldn't catch the run.. They're going up further this morning on a big volume... Not sure if I will be able to get them at all...

By the way, Beach Petroleum is doing very well this morning.. hopefully proven to be a good investment.

Work From Home

What's the different between investing on ASX and selling on eBay?

While it's unfair to compare them, as they have a very different nature, both of them actually gives you an opportunity to work from home. Work in the comfort of your house, with plenty of benefits (such as your own huge fridge, snacks and TV set), and of course the joy of being nagged by your own little ones most of the times when you really want to concentrate on something :).

Other similarity is: (surprise - surprise...) both require work!
Making money requires work - even in the stock market.

Getting A Beating

I haven't updated this blog for about three weeks. Things happened, and some of the shares in my portfolio went south. I can easily list these shares, as even Tassal Group (TGR.ASX - who's so far is one of my best investments) went down in its price. I guess this downturn was partly contributed by the selling in June by investors for tax loss purposes.

Tassal Group went down to as low as few cents under $3 from above $3.30. I'm hoping that their worst is over now. I managed to pick up some more at $3.04, and so far it's going up again to $3.32... thanks God!

Another share that was quite solid, Industrea (IDL.ASX), was also experiencing a downturn. It share price went down from $ 0.45 to as low as $0.35. I was a bit itching to pick up some more, except that I was not very keen to take the risk.. IDL share price went up again to $0.44 on yesterday's closing, after the anouncement of securing $75m acquisition war chest from Cornell Capital Partners (a leading US Investment fund) and Australian NAB. I guess this was saying a lot of confidence on Industrea's acquisition strategy. Previously, Industre made four successful acquisitions of: Qvent. Ltd (including operating subsidiary Omni-Quant - which they just sold); Advance Mining Technology Pty Ltd.; Wadam Industries Pty Ltd; PJ Berriman & Company Pty Ltd.

Unfortunately, I have to let go of Allegiance Mining (AGM.ASX) and Glengarry Resource (GGY.ASX). Allegiance's share price is experiencing a massive downturn, part of it due to the lower nickel price. Share price went down from $1.185 to a lot lower than $1. Allegiance closed on Friday at $0.805.. I sold out my holding at $0.88, taking my loss of 0.16 per share as I bought them at $1.04...

Glengarry was not a better story. After it reached it's peak at $0.24 it went down and down to 0.12... Now I'm holding quite a few of this stock, and kept holding it, my excuse was that I was waiting for the result of their Greenvale drilling. I was not patient enough, as my loss is getting bigger and bigger, so I sold out mine, in the ground of cutting the lost - well, just ONE day before the result was anounced!!! So I missed the 24% increase of their price just by a day....But anyway, GGY could not sustained that price ($0.155) for long, and start to go down again for the past few days. I bought GGY at $0.175 and sold my holding at 0.125, for a loss.

Other than the beating, there were also some nice stories, OXR performed quite well for the past weeks, also REX and PNA. The performance of DYL was not too bad, and even THR seems to be getting ready for its run. Giralia... Hmm not so much movement..

I add my portfolio with few shares of Beach Petroleum (BPT.ASX), and picked up some more of PNA and THR.. Will see how things going on Monday...

Cheers! Happy investing!